Basically, I told you that you won't ever be famous, on the facts that:
- You are now competing against all the music that's ever been made, including the very best songs from every era.
- Pop culture has fragmented and there are very few mainstream distribution channels left by which to become famous.
Maybe you'll prove me wrong (I hope you do, and I hope you'll invite me to the Grammys when it happens), and anyway I'm not saying there will be no more superstars. I fully expect the back half of the 2020s to mint a few new famous people, and no matter where the culture goes, I expect we'll always find a way to exalt some folks to ultra-fame. We're only human; we're made to worship.
But I do think there will be fewer superstars born in the next decade.
Also, as I kind of vaguely intimated at the end of last week's newsletter, I don't think that's such a bad thing. Superstardom might be on the way out, but the flip-side of that, which I'd like to examine in today's newsletter, is that it's actually a good moment to be making music.
Average-person art is on the way up. Here's why.
1) Algorithms.
I can go on for ages about how awful algorithms are. In fact I literally just wrote and deleted a full paragraph about how much I dislike having my attention directed by profit-pointed machines. But rather than retreading that today, I'd like to offer the counterargument, which is:
Algorithms are wickedly good at showing people what they're interested in.
I know this firsthand, having just accidentally watched an 18-minute breakdown of how Vinicius Jr. might fit at Arsenal (and I sure hope he does), not because I actively sought it out but because it algomagically popped into existence on my YouTube homepage. I'm guessing you know the power of algorithms, too, probably by personal experience in the last 10 minutes. Algorithms are just so good, which is why they're so bad. They've fragmented pop culture into eight billion tiny feeds and made it much harder to become a superstar – but also much easier to become a mini-star.
And that's the rub: Algorithms enable mini-stardom.
A couple of examples:
Stephen Spencer is a mini-star. This is an average, mustached man who turns stories from his toddler into songs. Before algorithms, his music would've been a fun little thing within his immediate circle of family and friends. Now it's enjoyed by 420,000 people.
Frank Watkinson is a mini-star. This is an old guy with a guitar who does gut-punch, finger-picked covers of just about everything, including "Somewhere Only We Know," and damn it hits. But can you imagine Frank making it big on some mainstream pop channel back in the day, like MTV or the radio? I can't. Fortunately, he never needed to. He has more than a million YouTube subscribers.
My point is that we live in an age where finding a niche audience for your niche thing is easier than it's ever been. Of course you still need skill, perseverance, a willingness to play the game, and more than a little luck to find the right group of people. But, for the first time in a hundred years, two things you don't need are a record label and a vault of money.
Thanks to algorithms, you will never be a superstar. But thanks to algorithms, you could very well be a mini-star next month.
2) People.
Our age is working on mediating every form of human connection with technology.
The other day I saw a thing where Sam Altman earnestly suggested that everyone use ChatGPT to make podcasts about their daily family schedules, basically as a way for parents to keep up with their kids' activities on morning commutes. And some people were like, "Wow Sam, what a great idea!" but other people were like, "Dear god shouldn't you just talk to your kids in the car instead of making AI tell you about their dance practices?" and still other people were like, "Please just go outside and breathe. Or die," and of course this was happening on Twitter, which is a non-place for yelling at people in all caps.
Technology wants to be between us and everything. It's the world in which we live and move and have our being; it's omnipresent. It may be wonderful or terrible, but one thing it certainly is is inhuman – and we're still people, which means we're still desperate for people.
Here's an analogy: When I take my dog for a walk, her main concern is other dogs. It's a built-in thing for her. No matter that birds can fly better than dogs, or that cars are faster than dogs, or that people are (occasionally) smarter – she doesn't care about any of that stuff. She cares about other dogs. She obsesses over other dogs. For her it's the dog-ness that counts.
We are humans. We obsess over humans. Technology might be god or the devil, but it won't ever be human, and for us it's the humanness that counts. The more technology is between us, the more we will long for connection with other humans. And art is connection.
A cynical way of saying this: Get in now, because market demand for art is only going up.
A better way of saying this: Technology makes it easier than ever to reach people with your art, and technology makes people more than ever want to be reached.
So what?
Right. I don't know what all of this means for you. But for me, it means I'm caring less and less about big, arbitrary numbers, less and less about mega-virality. More and more, I just want to help artists build paid, meaningful communities around their art. It's the 1,000 true fans thing. Kevin Kelly was two decades ahead of his time.
I plan to write more about this at a practical level in the near future, probably as soon as next week.
But for now, two things:
1) I'm hosting a live Q&A about Patreon in my membership. It's tomorrow at 4pm Eastern. Tom, whom you know from his newsletters and who runs a 150-member Patreon for his own music, will be there. I'd love to see you there, too. You can join the call by becoming a member.
2) I'll be running a 90-day cohort to help artists build their own Patreons. It's application-only. I'd like to do this with no more than three to five people. You can read the details and apply here.
That's what. Thanks, as always, for reading.
– Jon
Jon Anderson
Founder @ Two Story Media
Unsurprisingly Bad @ Being Famous
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100% Human Guarantee
I wrote this, not AI.
Today's random photo: This is a river in Pennsylvania. Or maybe a creek. Or maybe a crick. Idk, but it was pretty.
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P.S. – Last week I wrote about why you probably won't ever be a superstar. You can read it here.
P.P.S. – Putting these things here for people who skim:
- Join tomorrow's Patreon Q&A by joining our membership.
- Apply for a Patreon-building cohort here.