I know, I know. We're talking in circles. Last week, Tom's email featured a subject line to the exact opposite effect (although, to be fair, he did punctuate it with a question mark, so there was more than a suggestion of ambiguity).
In that email – which you can read here – Tom leads with a semi-viral article on Spotify's pending obsolescence, but he actually ends by taking the opposite stance: Spotify is not going anywhere.
I agree with him. In today's email, I'll explain why, and what I think Spotify's unfortunate persistence means for your music.
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Spotify is the final form of music-listening convenience.
(Quick aside that could probably be a full email in itself: I'm using Spotify as a stand-in to represent the entire DSP industry, but the points I'm making can mostly be applied to any single DSP and to the streaming industry as a whole. I think it's entirely possible we'll see power shifts among streaming giants – i.e., Spotify fails while Amazon gains market share, or something like that – but very unlikely that streaming itself is displaced by some other system.)
I am increasingly convinced that the entire motion of technology is toward power and convenience. We don't get technologies that are good; we get technologies that we will pay for. And we, as a short-sighted, doom-scrolling, star-chasing species, will pay for power and convenience.
In the article Tom shared last week, the author walks through a brief history of music technology, shared through the lens of label control. The labels, he writes, have historically made both the music and the means of listening to it: They literally invented vinyl records, then cassettes, then CDs. But they lost their control over music distribution when tech companies jumped in to popularize streaming.
The author notes that this setup, in which the powers that control the production and distribution of music are separated and at odds with each other, is unprecedented. By implication, he suggests that it's unsustainable.
I think he's right. This setup probably is unsustainable: for the labels.
In terms of the tech, though, the progression is a clear and natural evolution that has now reached its zenith (or nadir, depending on your point of view): The path from vinyl to CDs to streaming has been one of ever-increasing convenience for the consumer.
Streaming is its final form.
You used to have to go to a concert to hear music. Then you had to own a clunky record player with a limited selection. Then a CD collection, etc. Today, you can listen to anything you like, wherever you like, whenever you like. And if you let your AI DJ take over, you literally don't even have to lift a finger.
I may be unimaginative, but I can't think of a way to make this experience more convenient. And because consumers pay for convenience, I can't imagine this system going away.
(Another quick aside that could probably be a full email in itself: I do think it's unsustainable to have music producers and distributors at odds with each other, but my bet is that production will fold into distribution rather than the other way around. In other words, Spotify and co. will become record labels in the same way that Netflix and co. have become movie studios. You're already seeing this with Spotify's "Perfect Fit Content" program and its approach to AI content, and my bet is you'll only see more of it. I think it's pretty obvious that tech companies will make mostly-terrible record labels, but that's an email for another day.)
There will be alternatives: social media discovery, or standalone indie streamers with a small selection of local co-op music, or direct-to-fan platforms like Patreon or Laylo whatever. These things already exist. But they'll continue to be ancillary offerings on the fringes, not the main ways that most people listen to music.
Outside of some fragmentation (like we've seen with TV streaming), the mass market product for music listening – and therefore the way for artists to reach a mass market – will continue to be something very like our current DSPs, because that's what consumers want. This will be true until people become weirdly virtuous, or the internet explodes, or they sync all of our brains to the cloud. Maybe that'll all happen at once.
So: What should you do? I'm no Jimmy Iovine, but here are my two cents.
Don't treat Spotify like the endgame; treat it like the starting line.
No, you don't have to be on Spotify (or on any DSP). Yes, Spotify mostly sucks. But it's also the most efficient way ever created of putting music into people's ears.
Spotify's algorithmic playlists are still freakishly effective. Their editorials are still annoyingly powerful. And their user-base (751 million monthly active users, according to Google's AI overview) is still unmatched.
I'd recommend most artists use Spotify for one or both of two things:
- Reaching people with your music
- Demonstrating your legitimacy
It's hugely effective at both. But please, for your own sanity, stop there. Do not count on Spotify for the following things:
- Making money
- Building real relationships around your music
As the author of The Death of Spotify put it in his less-viral, follow-up article: Sell Fiji, not tap water.
For most artists, putting music into someone's ears is not the endgame. It's the starting point. From there, it's up to you to build a world around your artistry that opens opportunities for deeper relationships. Your world should not be built on Spotify, but Spotify can be an entry point to it.
Spotify is not everything. Far from it.
But it's also, for better or worse, far from being obsolete.
– Jon
Jon Anderson
Founder @ Two Story Media
Surprisingly Bad @ Scrabble
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100% Human Guarantee
I wrote this, not AI.
Today's random photo: Someone reported our car (a beat-up 2004 Corolla) as being abandoned last week, which resulted in it being ticketed by police and towed from our house to a lot outside town. I took this photo while waiting at the tow lot to commemorate how nice the weather was.
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